Sturm Graz 2–0 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SCR Altach

3/8/2026

Bundesliga · Round 22Merkur-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Sturm Graz51%

×Draw24%

SCR Altach25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm GrazExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.07

Sturm Graz

1.66

SCR Altach

1.07

Sturm Graz creates 55% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

1.71

creates per match

0.96

1.19

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sturm Graz

1.71

SCR Altach

0.96

allows per match

Sturm Graz

1.19

SCR Altach

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

SCR Altach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw

75%

Sturm Graz or SCR Altach

76%

Draw or SCR Altach

49%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

27%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

81%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

49%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

23%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

66%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

29%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

68%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + SCR Altach defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

SCR Altach attack 0.96 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sturm Graz scores more

51%

level

24%

SCR Altach scores more

25%

Sturm Graz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff