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SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

SCR Altach
SCR Altach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
11/30/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 15CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

SCR Altach30%
×Draw26%
Sturm Graz44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCR Altach
1.17
Sturm Graz
1.48

Sturm Graz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

SCR Altach
1.15
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

SCR Altach
1.35
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

SCR Altach+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCR Altach ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SCR Altach or draw
56%
SCR Altach or Sturm Graz
74%
Draw or Sturm Graz
70%

Winning margin

SCR Altach wins by 2+
12%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SCR Altach 1+ goals
69%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
33%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
11%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
77%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
43%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SCR Altach (draw refunded)
40%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCR Altach at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 128 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCR Altach attack 1.15 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + SCR Altach defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SCR Altach scores more
30%
level
26%
Sturm Graz scores more
44%

Sturm Graz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz

SCR Altach and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena in Altach.