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Sturm Graz vs Lazio — UEFA Europa League 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
10/6/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sturm Graz50%
×Draw28%
Lazio23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.39
Lazio
0.84

Sturm Graz creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
0.92
Lazio
0.93

allows per match

Sturm Graz
0.75
Lazio
1.86

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
77%
Sturm Graz or Lazio
72%
Draw or Lazio
50%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
24%
Lazio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
75%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
40%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
16%
Lazio 1+ goals
57%
Lazio 2+ goals
21%
Lazio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
69%
Lazio (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Lazio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 0.92 + Lazio defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lazio attack 0.93 + Sturm Graz defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
50%
level
28%
Lazio scores more
23%

Sturm Graz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Sturm Graz 0–0 Lazio

Sturm Graz and Lazio drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 6, 2022.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.