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Lazio vs Sturm Graz — UEFA Europa League 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
10/13/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lazio60%
×Draw23%
Sturm Graz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.83
Sturm Graz
0.87

Lazio creates 110% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.50
Sturm Graz
0.67

allows per match

Lazio
1.07
Sturm Graz
2.17

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
83%
Lazio or Sturm Graz
77%
Draw or Sturm Graz
40%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
35%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
84%
Lazio 2+ goals
54%
Lazio 3+ goals
28%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
58%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
22%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
77%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.50 + Sturm Graz defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sturm Graz attack 0.67 + Lazio defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lazio scores more
60%
level
23%
Sturm Graz scores more
17%

Lazio at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Lazio 2–2 Sturm Graz

Lazio and Sturm Graz drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on October 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.