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Sturm Graz vs FC BW Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
4/20/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 4Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sturm Graz53%
×Draw24%
FC BW Linz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.69
FC BW Linz
1.00

Sturm Graz creates 69% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
1.71
FC BW Linz
0.81

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.19
FC BW Linz
1.67

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

FC BW Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
78%
Sturm Graz or FC BW Linz
76%
Draw or FC BW Linz
47%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
29%
FC BW Linz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
82%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
50%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
24%
FC BW Linz 1+ goals
63%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
26%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
71%
FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + FC BW Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC BW Linz attack 0.81 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
53%
level
24%
FC BW Linz scores more
22%

Sturm Graz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Sturm Graz 2–0 FC BW Linz

Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 2-0 in Bundesliga on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.