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FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
5/4/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 7Hofmann Personal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC BW Linz34%
×Draw25%
Sturm Graz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC BW Linz
1.31
Sturm Graz
1.45

Sturm Graz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 129 away

creates per match

FC BW Linz
1.42
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

FC BW Linz
1.29
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw
60%
FC BW Linz or Sturm Graz
75%
Draw or Sturm Graz
66%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+
15%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals
73%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
38%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
14%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
77%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
42%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
46%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 1.42 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + FC BW Linz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC BW Linz scores more
34%
level
25%
Sturm Graz scores more
40%

Sturm Graz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 1-0 in Bundesliga on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Linz.