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Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
11/25/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 15Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sturm Graz52%
×Draw24%
Austria Lustenau24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.67
Austria Lustenau
1.05

Sturm Graz creates 59% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
1.71
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.19
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
76%
Sturm Graz or Austria Lustenau
76%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
48%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
28%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
81%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
50%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
23%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
65%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
28%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
68%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
52%
level
24%
Austria Lustenau scores more
24%

Sturm Graz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Sturm Graz 2–0 Austria Lustenau

Sturm Graz beat Austria Lustenau 2-0 in Bundesliga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.