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Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
8/19/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 4Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau27%
×Draw23%
Sturm Graz50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.25
Sturm Graz
1.77

Sturm Graz creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 129 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
50%
Austria Lustenau or Sturm Graz
77%
Draw or Sturm Graz
73%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
11%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
71%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
36%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
13%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
83%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
53%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
35%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
27%
level
23%
Sturm Graz scores more
50%

Sturm Graz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz beat Austria Lustenau 1-0 in Bundesliga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Pure Stadion in Lustenau.