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Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt — Bundesliga 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
5/19/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 10Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Sturm Graz51%
×Draw23%
Austria Klagenfurt26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.84
Austria Klagenfurt
1.24

Sturm Graz creates 48% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
1.71
Austria Klagenfurt
1.29

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.19
Austria Klagenfurt
1.97

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
74%
Sturm Graz or Austria Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt
49%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
29%
Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
84%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
55%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
28%
Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
71%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
35%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
67%
Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.97 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.29 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
51%
level
23%
Austria Klagenfurt scores more
26%

Sturm Graz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt

Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-0 in Bundesliga on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.