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Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
8/17/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 328 Black Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt28%
×Draw24%
Sturm Graz48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.23
Sturm Graz
1.67

Sturm Graz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 129 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.26
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
52%
Austria Klagenfurt or Sturm Graz
76%
Draw or Sturm Graz
72%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
12%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
71%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
35%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
13%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
81%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
50%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
37%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.26 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
28%
level
24%
Sturm Graz scores more
48%

Sturm Graz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Austria Klagenfurt 0–2 Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-0 in Bundesliga on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at 28 Black Arena in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.