Sturm Graz II 2–1 Deutschlandsberger SC

Sturm Graz II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deutschlandsberger SC

8/14/2020

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 1Messendorf Trainingszentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sturm Graz II56%

×Draw20%

Deutschlandsberger SC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm Graz IIExpected goals in this matchDeutschlandsberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.41

Sturm Graz II

2.25

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.41

Sturm Graz II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 107 away

2.76

creates per match

1.60

1.22

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sturm Graz II

2.76

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.60

allows per match

Sturm Graz II

1.22

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz II+0.00on par

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz II ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sturm Graz II or draw

76%

Sturm Graz II or Deutschlandsberger SC

80%

Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC

44%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz II wins by 2+

35%

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sturm Graz II 1+ goals

89%

Sturm Graz II 2+ goals

65%

Sturm Graz II 3+ goals

39%

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals

76%

Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals

41%

Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)

70%

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz II at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.22 · 50 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz II attack 2.76 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.25

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sturm Graz II scores more

56%

level

20%

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more

24%

Sturm Graz II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff