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Deutschlandsberger SC vs Sturm Graz II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II
8/13/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 5Koralmstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Deutschlandsberger SC38%
×Draw22%
Sturm Graz II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutschlandsberger SC
1.74
Sturm Graz II
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 49 away

creates per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
2.17
Sturm Graz II
2.14

allows per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
1.37
Sturm Graz II
1.31

finishing

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par
Sturm Graz II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutschlandsberger SC ↓

Sturm Graz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Deutschlandsberger SC or draw
61%
Deutschlandsberger SC or Sturm Graz II
78%
Draw or Sturm Graz II
62%

Winning margin

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
20%
Sturm Graz II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
82%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
52%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
25%
Sturm Graz II 1+ goals
83%
Sturm Graz II 2+ goals
52%
Sturm Graz II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
49%
Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutschlandsberger SC at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 105 matches

Sturm Graz II away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 2.17 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sturm Graz II attack 2.14 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
38%
level
22%
Sturm Graz II scores more
39%

Sturm Graz II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deutschlandsberger SC vs Sturm Graz II

Sturm Graz II beat Deutschlandsberger SC 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Koralmstadion in Deutschlandsberg.