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Stupčanica Olovo vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Čelik
Čelik
10/26/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo53%
×Draw24%
Čelik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stupčanica Olovo
1.67
Čelik
1.00

Stupčanica Olovo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo
2.11
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo
0.86
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw
77%
Stupčanica Olovo or Čelik
76%
Draw or Čelik
47%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
29%
Čelik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
81%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
50%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
23%
Čelik 1+ goals
63%
Čelik 2+ goals
26%
Čelik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
70%
Čelik (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Čelik attack 1.14 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more
53%
level
24%
Čelik scores more
23%

Stupčanica Olovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stupčanica Olovo vs Čelik

Stupčanica Olovo beat Čelik 4-2 in 1st League - FBiH on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Olovo in Olovo.