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Čelik vs Stupčanica Olovo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
5/17/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik51%
×Draw26%
Stupčanica Olovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
1.51
Stupčanica Olovo
0.93

Čelik creates 62% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
Stupčanica Olovo
1.23

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
77%
Čelik or Stupčanica Olovo
74%
Draw or Stupčanica Olovo
49%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
26%
Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
78%
Čelik 2+ goals
44%
Čelik 3+ goals
19%
Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
61%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
24%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
69%
Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.51

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Čelik scores more
51%
level
26%
Stupčanica Olovo scores more
23%

Čelik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čelik vs Stupčanica Olovo

Čelik beat Stupčanica Olovo 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.