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Stupčanica Olovo vs Bratstvo Gračanica — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
4/6/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo58%
×Draw23%
Bratstvo Gračanica19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stupčanica Olovo
1.76
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.90

Stupčanica Olovo creates 96% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 96 away

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo
2.11
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.94

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo
0.86
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.41

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par
Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw
81%
Stupčanica Olovo or Bratstvo Gračanica
77%
Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica
42%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
33%
Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
83%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
52%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
26%
Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
59%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
23%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
75%
Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.94 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more
58%
level
23%
Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
19%

Stupčanica Olovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Stupčanica Olovo 3–1 Bratstvo Gračanica

Stupčanica Olovo beat Bratstvo Gračanica 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Olovo in Olovo.