Bratstvo Gračanica 2–3 Stupčanica Olovo

Bratstvo Gračanica

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Stupčanica Olovo

11/8/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica42%

×Draw26%

Stupčanica Olovo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo GračanicaExpected goals in this matchStupčanica Olovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.42

Stupčanica Olovo

1.21

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 57 away

1.81

creates per match

1.23

1.18

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.81

Stupčanica Olovo

1.23

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.18

Stupčanica Olovo

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw

68%

Bratstvo Gračanica or Stupčanica Olovo

74%

Draw or Stupčanica Olovo

58%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

20%

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

76%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

41%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

17%

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

70%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

34%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

57%

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

42%

level

26%

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

32%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff