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Stumbras II vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Stumbras II
Stumbras II
FT
0 – 2
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
10/2/20181 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 21Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stumbras II37%
×Draw24%
Nevėžis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stumbras II
1.48
Nevėžis
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 94 away

creates per match

Stumbras II
1.64
Nevėžis
1.76

allows per match

Stumbras II
1.27
Nevėžis
1.33

finishing

Stumbras II+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stumbras II ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stumbras II or draw
61%
Stumbras II or Nevėžis
76%
Draw or Nevėžis
63%

Winning margin

Stumbras II wins by 2+
18%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stumbras II 1+ goals
77%
Stumbras II 2+ goals
43%
Stumbras II 3+ goals
19%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
78%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
45%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stumbras II (draw refunded)
49%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stumbras II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stumbras II attack 1.64 + Nevėžis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nevėžis attack 1.76 + Stumbras II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stumbras II scores more
37%
level
24%
Nevėžis scores more
39%

Nevėžis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Stumbras II 0–2 Nevėžis

Nevėžis beat Stumbras II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on October 2, 2018.

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.