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Nevėžis vs Stumbras II — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
3 – 2
Stumbras II
Stumbras II
5/18/20181 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nevėžis58%
×Draw22%
Stumbras II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
1.89
Stumbras II
1.00

Nevėžis creates 89% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.86
Stumbras II
0.91

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.08
Stumbras II
1.91

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Stumbras II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Stumbras II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
80%
Nevėžis or Stumbras II
78%
Draw or Stumbras II
42%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
34%
Stumbras II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
85%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
56%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
29%
Stumbras II 1+ goals
63%
Stumbras II 2+ goals
26%
Stumbras II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
75%
Stumbras II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Stumbras II away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.86 + Stumbras II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Stumbras II attack 0.91 + Nevėžis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nevėžis scores more
58%
level
22%
Stumbras II scores more
20%

Nevėžis at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nevėžis vs Stumbras II

Nevėžis beat Stumbras II 3-2 in 1 Lyga on May 18, 2018.

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas in Kėdainiai.