Studentski Grad 2–2 Polet Dorćol: Result & Stats

Studentski Grad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Polet Dorćol

11/10/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 14Stadion FK Milutinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Studentski Grad48%

×Draw27%

Polet Dorćol26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Studentski GradExpected goals in this matchPolet Dorćol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.98

Studentski Grad

1.45

Polet Dorćol

0.98

Studentski Grad creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 68 away

1.27

creates per match

0.75

1.22

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Studentski Grad

1.27

Polet Dorćol

0.75

allows per match

Studentski Grad

1.22

Polet Dorćol

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

Polet Dorćol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw

74%

Studentski Grad or Polet Dorćol

73%

Draw or Polet Dorćol

52%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+

24%

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals

77%

Studentski Grad 2+ goals

42%

Studentski Grad 3+ goals

18%

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals

62%

Polet Dorćol 2+ goals

26%

Polet Dorćol 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)

65%

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Studentski Grad scores more

48%

level

27%

Polet Dorćol scores more

26%

Studentski Grad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff