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Polet Dorćol vs Studentski Grad — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Studentski Grad
Studentski Grad
3/14/2025Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 16Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Polet Dorćol47%
×Draw24%
Studentski Grad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Dorćol
1.71
Studentski Grad
1.29

Polet Dorćol creates 33% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 77 away

creates per match

Polet Dorćol
1.52
Studentski Grad
1.10

allows per match

Polet Dorćol
1.49
Studentski Grad
1.90

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par
Studentski Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

Studentski Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw
71%
Polet Dorćol or Studentski Grad
76%
Draw or Studentski Grad
53%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
25%
Studentski Grad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
82%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
51%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
24%
Studentski Grad 1+ goals
72%
Studentski Grad 2+ goals
37%
Studentski Grad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
62%
Studentski Grad (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

Studentski Grad away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + Studentski Grad defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Studentski Grad attack 1.10 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more
47%
level
24%
Studentski Grad scores more
29%

Polet Dorćol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Dorćol vs Studentski Grad

Polet Dorćol beat Studentski Grad 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK GSP Polet in Beograd.