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Studentski Grad vs BSK Batajnica — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Studentski Grad
Studentski Grad
FT
1 – 0
BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
8/30/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 3FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Studentski Grad62%
×Draw22%
BSK Batajnica17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Studentski Grad
1.93
BSK Batajnica
0.88

Studentski Grad creates 119% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

creates per match

Studentski Grad
1.27
BSK Batajnica
0.53

allows per match

Studentski Grad
1.22
BSK Batajnica
2.58

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par
BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

BSK Batajnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw
83%
Studentski Grad or BSK Batajnica
78%
Draw or BSK Batajnica
38%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+
37%
BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals
85%
Studentski Grad 2+ goals
57%
Studentski Grad 3+ goals
30%
BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
59%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
22%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)
79%
BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.93

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Studentski Grad scores more
62%
level
22%
BSK Batajnica scores more
17%

Studentski Grad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Studentski Grad 1–0 BSK Batajnica

Studentski Grad beat BSK Batajnica 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at FK Brodarac Stadion in Novi Beograd.