BSK Batajnica 1–2 Studentski Grad: Result & Stats

BSK Batajnica

FT

1 – 2

Studentski Grad

3/17/2021

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 22FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica35%

×Draw27%

Studentski Grad37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK BatajnicaExpected goals in this matchStudentski Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.24

BSK Batajnica

1.19

Studentski Grad

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 77 away

0.47

creates per match

1.10

1.37

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

BSK Batajnica

0.47

Studentski Grad

1.10

allows per match

BSK Batajnica

1.37

Studentski Grad

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Studentski Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Studentski Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw

63%

BSK Batajnica or Studentski Grad

73%

Draw or Studentski Grad

65%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

15%

Studentski Grad wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

70%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

33%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

12%

Studentski Grad 1+ goals

71%

Studentski Grad 2+ goals

35%

Studentski Grad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

48%

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Studentski Grad away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Studentski Grad defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Studentski Grad attack 1.10 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more

35%

level

27%

Studentski Grad scores more

37%

Studentski Grad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff