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Strumska Slava vs Tsarsko Selo — Second League 2018

Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
B. Nikolov 85'
A. Asparuhov 56'
V. Kitan 60'
K. Evgeniev (o.g.) 11'
5/23/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Strumska Slava27%
×Draw26%
Tsarsko Selo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strumska Slava
1.08
Tsarsko Selo
1.52

Tsarsko Selo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Strumska Slava
1.17
Tsarsko Selo
2.00

allows per match

Strumska Slava
1.03
Tsarsko Selo
1.00

finishing

Strumska Slava+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strumska Slava ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Strumska Slava or draw
53%
Strumska Slava or Tsarsko Selo
74%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
73%

Winning margin

Strumska Slava wins by 2+
10%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Strumska Slava 1+ goals
66%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
29%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
10%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
78%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
45%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
36%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strumska Slava at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strumska Slava attack 1.17 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.00 + Strumska Slava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Strumska Slava scores more
27%
level
26%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
47%

Tsarsko Selo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. Evgeniev (o.g.)
56'
A. Asparuhov
60'
V. Kitan
85'
B. Nikolov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strumska Slava vs Tsarsko Selo

Strumska Slava and Tsarsko Selo drew 2-2 in Second League on May 23, 2019.

Goals: K. Evgeniev (o.g.) (11'), A. Asparuhov (56'), V. Kitan (60'), B. Nikolov (85').

The match was played at Gradski stadion.