Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tsarsko Selo vs Strumska Slava — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
3 – 1
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
11/24/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tsarsko Selo65%
×Draw21%
Strumska Slava14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.99
Strumska Slava
0.81

Tsarsko Selo creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.53
Strumska Slava
0.81

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.80
Strumska Slava
1.46

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
86%
Tsarsko Selo or Strumska Slava
79%
Draw or Strumska Slava
35%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
40%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
86%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
59%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
32%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
56%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
19%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
82%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.53 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.99

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
65%
level
21%
Strumska Slava scores more
14%

Tsarsko Selo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Tsarsko Selo 3–1 Strumska Slava

Tsarsko Selo beat Strumska Slava 3-1 in Second League on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).