Strumska Slava vs Kariana Erden

Strumska Slava

CANC

15:00

Kariana Erden

5/12/2021

Second League · Round 32Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Strumska Slava42%

×Draw28%

Kariana Erden31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strumska SlavaExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.06

Strumska Slava

1.29

Kariana Erden

1.06

Strumska Slava creates 22% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

1.17

creates per match

1.09

1.03

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Strumska Slava

1.17

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Strumska Slava

1.03

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strumska Slava ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Strumska Slava or draw

69%

Strumska Slava or Kariana Erden

72%

Draw or Kariana Erden

58%

Winning margin

Strumska Slava wins by 2+

19%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Strumska Slava 1+ goals

72%

Strumska Slava 2+ goals

37%

Strumska Slava 3+ goals

14%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

65%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

29%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)

58%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strumska Slava at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strumska Slava attack 1.17 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Strumska Slava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Strumska Slava scores more

42%

level

28%

Kariana Erden scores more

31%

Strumska Slava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Strumska Slava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff