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Kariana Erden vs Strumska Slava — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
11/28/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden53%
×Draw26%
Strumska Slava22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.54
Strumska Slava
0.88

Kariana Erden creates 75% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 113 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Strumska Slava
0.81

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Strumska Slava
1.46

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
78%
Kariana Erden or Strumska Slava
74%
Draw or Strumska Slava
47%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
27%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
79%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
45%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
20%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
59%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
22%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
71%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
53%
level
26%
Strumska Slava scores more
22%

Kariana Erden at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kariana Erden 2–1 Strumska Slava

Kariana Erden beat Strumska Slava 2-1 in Second League on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kariana in Erden.