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Struga vs Renova — First League 2019

Struga
Struga
CANC
00:00
Renova
Renova
10/9/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Struga51%
×Draw25%
Renova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Struga
1.56
Renova
0.97

Struga creates 61% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 46 away

creates per match

Struga
1.63
Renova
1.15

allows per match

Struga
0.79
Renova
1.50

finishing

Struga+0.00on par
Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

Renova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Struga or draw
76%
Struga or Renova
75%
Draw or Renova
49%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+
26%
Renova wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals
79%
Struga 2+ goals
46%
Struga 3+ goals
21%
Renova 1+ goals
62%
Renova 2+ goals
25%
Renova 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)
68%
Renova (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Renova attack 1.15 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Struga scores more
51%
level
25%
Renova scores more
24%

Struga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Struga vs Renova — Match Preview

Struga face Renova on October 9, 2022 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Struga host Renova at Gradska Plaža Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.