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Renova vs Struga — First League 2019

Renova
Renova
CANC
00:00
Struga
Struga
3/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Renova37%
×Draw29%
Struga35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
1.13
Struga
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 106 away

creates per match

Renova
1.18
Struga
1.19

allows per match

Renova
1.00
Struga
1.07

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Struga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Renova or draw
65%
Renova or Struga
71%
Draw or Struga
63%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
15%
Struga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
68%
Renova 2+ goals
31%
Renova 3+ goals
11%
Struga 1+ goals
66%
Struga 2+ goals
30%
Struga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
51%
Struga (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Struga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.18 + Struga defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Struga attack 1.19 + Renova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Renova scores more
37%
level
29%
Struga scores more
35%

Renova at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Renova vs Struga — Match Preview

Renova face Struga on March 5, 2023 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Renova host Struga at Ecolog Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.