Struga 1–0 Renova: Result & Stats | Cup

Struga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Renova

N. Lena 53' (pen)

11/25/2020

Cup · Quarter-finalsGradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Struga41%

×Draw26%

Renova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrugaExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.19

Struga

1.38

Renova

1.19

Struga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

2.00

0.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Struga

1.25

Renova

2.00

allows per match

Struga

0.38

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Struga+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Struga or draw

68%

Struga or Renova

74%

Draw or Renova

59%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+

19%

Renova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals

75%

Struga 2+ goals

40%

Struga 3+ goals

16%

Renova 1+ goals

70%

Renova 2+ goals

33%

Renova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)

56%

Renova (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Renova away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.25 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Renova attack 2.00 + Struga defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Struga scores more

41%

level

26%

Renova scores more

32%

Struga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

N. LenaPenalty

60'

E. Skenderi← M. Altiparmakovski

66'

A. Shala← S. Fetai

80'

F. Milenkovski← B. Sheji

84'

S. Muharem← F. Stojchevski

90+1'

A. Mazari← N. Lena

Struga

Renova

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Zaharievski

60'▲E. Skenderi←▼M. Altiparmakovski

80'▲F. Milenkovski←▼B. Sheji

90+1'▲A. Mazari←▼N. Lena

Struga substitutes

SkenderiMilenkovskiMazari

Manager: B. Ukali

66'▲A. Shala←▼S. Fetai

84'▲S. Muharem←▼F. Stojchevski

Renova substitutes

ShalaMuharem

Match Recap: Struga vs Renova

Struga beat Renova 1-0 in Cup on November 25, 2020.

Goals: N. Lena (53' pen).

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.

Struga vs Renova — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Struga vs Renova