Stromsgodset 4–1 Sogndal: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sogndal

Bassel Jradi 86', 61'

Marcus Pedersen 64'

Francisco Júnior 44'

B. Bye 14'

10/29/2017

Eliteserien · Round 27Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stromsgodset50%

×Draw23%

Sogndal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.33

Stromsgodset

1.85

Sogndal

1.33

Stromsgodset creates 39% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 8 away

1.58

creates per match

1.13

1.54

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.58

Sogndal

1.13

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.54

Sogndal

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

72%

Stromsgodset or Sogndal

77%

Draw or Sogndal

50%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

28%

Sogndal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

28%

Sogndal 1+ goals

74%

Sogndal 2+ goals

38%

Sogndal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

64%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.58 + Sogndal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sogndal attack 1.13 + Stromsgodset defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

50%

level

23%

Sogndal scores more

28%

Stromsgodset at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Bassel Jradi

Stromsgodset · M

9.1

Match Events

14'

39'

39'

44'

61'

Bassel Jradi↳ T. Nguen

64'

Marcus Pedersen↳ E. Andersen

68'

U. Fredriksen← K. Wæhler

69'

J. Soltvedt← M. Ramsland

73'

P. Engblom← E. Andersen

74'

J. Hove← E. Schulze

82'

M. Hamoud← L. Vilsvik

86'

Bassel Jradi↳ T. Nguen

87'

A. Agouda← T. Nguen

90'

Bendik Bye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetSogndal

Overview

70%Possession30%

27Total Shots8

6Corners0

12Fouls15

Shots

27Total Shots8

8On Target3

11Off Target2

8Blocked3

13Inside Box3

14Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

622Total Passes264

516Accurate Passes171

83%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 4–1 Sogndal

Stromsgodset beat Sogndal 4-1 in Eliteserien on October 29, 2017.

Goals: B. Bye (14'), Francisco Júnior (44'), Bassel Jradi (61', 86'), Marcus Pedersen (64').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (70%) and registered 27 shots to 8.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Sogndal — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 4–1 Sogndal