Sogndal 0–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Sogndal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stromsgodset

E. Andersen 89'

10/23/2016

Eliteserien · Round 28Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sogndal42%

×Draw32%

Stromsgodset27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.79

Sogndal

1.07

Stromsgodset

0.79

Sogndal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 105 away

0.25

creates per match

1.07

0.50

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Sogndal

0.25

Stromsgodset

1.07

allows per match

Sogndal

0.50

Stromsgodset

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

73%

Sogndal or Stromsgodset

68%

Draw or Stromsgodset

58%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

17%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

66%

Sogndal 2+ goals

29%

Sogndal 3+ goals

9%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

19%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

61%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.89 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 0.25 + Stromsgodset defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Stromsgodset attack 1.07 + Sogndal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sogndal scores more

42%

level

32%

Stromsgodset scores more

27%

Sogndal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Glesnes

Stromsgodset · D

8.3

Match Events

68'

T. Nguen← K. Tokstad

78'

R. Holsæter← R. Bolseth

86'

Francisco Junior← M. Rønning

89'

E. Andersen

90+2'

K. Opseth← M. Pedersen

90+3'

M. Høibråten← P. Moen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SogndalStromsgodset

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots16

7Corners7

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots16

3On Target2

11Off Target9

2Blocked5

7Inside Box8

9Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

301Total Passes500

192Accurate Passes392

64%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sogndal vs Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset beat Sogndal 1-0 in Eliteserien on October 23, 2016.

Goals: E. Andersen (89').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.

Sogndal vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sogndal vs Stromsgodset