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Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
4/7/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 2Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Stromsgodset41%
×Draw24%
Rosenborg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.60
Rosenborg
1.45

Stromsgodset creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 117 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.60
Rosenborg
1.38

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.52
Rosenborg
1.61

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Rosenborg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
65%
Stromsgodset or Rosenborg
76%
Draw or Rosenborg
59%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
21%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
80%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
47%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
22%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
77%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
42%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
54%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.52 · 112 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.60 + Rosenborg defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rosenborg attack 1.38 + Stromsgodset defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
41%
level
24%
Rosenborg scores more
35%

Stromsgodset at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–0 Rosenborg

Stromsgodset beat Rosenborg 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.