Rosenborg 6–0 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stromsgodset

11/30/2025

Eliteserien · Round 30Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Rosenborg58%

×Draw22%

Stromsgodset20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.06

Rosenborg

1.97

Stromsgodset

1.06

Rosenborg creates 86% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 112 away

2.03

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Rosenborg

2.03

Stromsgodset

1.07

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.04

Stromsgodset

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.00on par

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

80%

Rosenborg or Stromsgodset

78%

Draw or Stromsgodset

42%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

35%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

86%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

58%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

31%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

65%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

74%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.04 · 119 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.91 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 2.03 + Stromsgodset defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.97

Stromsgodset attack 1.07 + Rosenborg defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rosenborg scores more

58%

level

22%

Stromsgodset scores more

20%

Rosenborg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff