Stromsgodset 0–1 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rosenborg

S. Nypan 22'

7/23/2023

Eliteserien · Round 15Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Stromsgodset45%

×Draw22%

Rosenborg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.55

Stromsgodset

1.85

Rosenborg

1.55

Stromsgodset creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.88

creates per match

1.36

1.74

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.88

Rosenborg

1.36

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.74

Rosenborg

1.83

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.59scores less

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

67%

Stromsgodset or Rosenborg

78%

Draw or Rosenborg

55%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

24%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

55%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

28%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

79%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

46%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

58%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.88 + Rosenborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Rosenborg attack 1.36 + Stromsgodset defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

45%

level

22%

Rosenborg scores more

33%

Stromsgodset at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Hansen

Rosenborg · G

7.6

Match Events

15'

Jayden Nelson

22'

S. Nypan

33'

Fredrik Kristensen Dahl

41'

Jonatan Braut Brunes

45'

M. Bjørlo← O. Skarsem

46'

A. Thorsen← T. Grøgaard

46'

K. Krasniqi← E. Danso

46'

E. Tagseth← J. Nelson

53'

Santeri Väänänen

66'

T. Børkeeiet← S. Väänänen

76'

A. Leifsson← S. Hanssen

84'

J. Therkelsen← O. Enersen

88'

S. Rogers← A. Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetRosenborg

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots10

0.84Expected Goals (xG)0.87

2Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots10

4On Target3

2Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

496Total Passes374

380Accurate Passes267

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1