Stromsgodset 3–3 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Rosenborg

J. Hove 59'

V. Hedenstad 18' (OG)

L. Salvesen 16'

D. Islamović 87'

P. Skjelbred 84'

T. Børven 22'

9/13/2020

Eliteserien · Round 17Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Stromsgodset43%

×Draw23%

Rosenborg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.58

Stromsgodset

1.81

Rosenborg

1.58

Stromsgodset creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 33 away

1.82

creates per match

1.35

1.81

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Rosenborg

1.35

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Rosenborg

1.81

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Rosenborg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

66%

Stromsgodset or Rosenborg

77%

Draw or Rosenborg

57%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

23%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

54%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

27%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

79%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

47%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

56%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.81 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Rosenborg attack 1.35 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

43%

level

23%

Rosenborg scores more

34%

Stromsgodset at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Hove

Stromsgodset · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

L. Salvesen↳ J. Hove

18'

V. HedenstadOwn goal

22'

T. Børven

31'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

34'

Niklas Gunnarsson

55'

C. Holse← K. Zachariassen

59'

J. Hove

60'

D. Islamović← T. Børven

74'

E. Ceïde← S. Adegbenro

74'

E. Tagseth← A. Konradsen

80'

H. Stenevik← K. Tokstad

84'

P. Skjelbred

87'

D. Islamović↳ C. Holse

90+3'

M. Mølvadgaard← L. Salvesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetRosenborg

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots15

4Corners9

15Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots15

6On Target6

7Off Target6

2Blocked3

10Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

476Total Passes420

380Accurate Passes320

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1