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Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
E. Melkersen 78'
G. Valsvik 71'
B. Willumsson 40'
O. Sivertsen 22' (pen)
4/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Stromsgodset48%
×Draw22%
Kristiansund BK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.91
Kristiansund BK
1.45

Stromsgodset creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Kristiansund BK
1.09

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.81
Kristiansund BK
2.00

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less
Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
71%
Stromsgodset or Kristiansund BK
78%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
52%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
27%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
85%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
57%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
30%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
77%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
42%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
62%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
48%
level
22%
Kristiansund BK scores more
29%

Stromsgodset at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
B. WillumssonKristiansund BKKristiansund BK · M
8.5

Match Events

22'
O. SivertsenPenalty
40'
B. Willumsson↳ O. Sivertsen
45'
Marko Farji
53'
Sebastian Jarl
59'
Marius Olsen
66'
J. Therkelsen← E. Andersen
67'
F. Nyenetue← O. Sivertsen
70'
Pape Habib Gueye
70'
S. Westerlund← L. Tómasson
71'
G. Valsvik↳ H. Stengel
78'
E. Melkersen↳ L. Vilsvik
81'
H. Sjåtil← H. Mikaelsson

Possession

Stromsgodset: 55Kristiansund: 4555%Stromsgodset

Shots

Stromsgodset: 24Kristiansund: 1624Stromsgodset

Pass accuracy

Stromsgodset: 82Kristiansund: 7851%Stromsgodset

Statistics

StromsgodsetKristiansund
Overview
55%Possession45%
24Total Shots16
2.90Expected Goals (xG)2.57
11Corners3
12Fouls9
Shots
24Total Shots16
6On Target7
10Off Target5
8Blocked4
22Inside Box9
2Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
458Total Passes397
375Accurate Passes310
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK

Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on April 28, 2024.

Goals: O. Sivertsen (22' pen), B. Willumsson (40'), G. Valsvik (71'), E. Melkersen (78').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (55%) and registered 24 shots to 16.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.