Kristiansund BK 0–0 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stromsgodset

10/20/2024

Eliteserien · Round 25Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Kristiansund BK45%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.34

Kristiansund BK

1.68

Stromsgodset

1.34

Kristiansund BK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 35 away

1.27

creates per match

1.06

1.62

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.27

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.62

Stromsgodset

2.09

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.07on par

Stromsgodset+0.05on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

69%

Kristiansund BK or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

55%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

24%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

81%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

50%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

24%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

74%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

39%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

60%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.27 + Stromsgodset defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.68

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

45%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

31%

Kristiansund BK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

G. Valsvik

Stromsgodset · D

8.2

Match Events

17'

Marko Farji← E. Andersen

61'

D. Tufekcic← O. Sivertsen

63'

E. Melkersen← N. Möller

75'

Kreshnik Krasniqi

83'

Mikkel Rakneberg

88'

I. Jeličić← J. Isaksen

88'

F. Nyenetue← A. Ndour

88'

W. Igor← R. Alte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundStromsgodset

Overview

43%Possession57%

18Total Shots9

1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.48

7Corners8

12Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

1On Target3

8Off Target4

9Blocked2

12Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

352Total Passes477

277Accurate Passes398

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2