Stromsgodset 2–2 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kristiansund BK

M. Mawa 77'

J. Hove 55'

A. Pellegrino 39', 27'

7/5/2020

Eliteserien · Round 6Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Stromsgodset49%

×Draw22%

Kristiansund BK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.44

Stromsgodset

1.91

Kristiansund BK

1.44

Stromsgodset creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.82

creates per match

1.05

1.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Kristiansund BK

1.05

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Kristiansund BK

2.00

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Kristiansund BK-0.05on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

71%

Stromsgodset or Kristiansund BK

78%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

51%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

27%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

85%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

57%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

30%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

76%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

62%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kristiansund BK attack 1.05 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

49%

level

22%

Kristiansund BK scores more

29%

Stromsgodset at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Pellegrino

Kristiansund BK · M

8.6

Match Events

27'

A. Pellegrino↳ B. Sørmo

39'

A. Pellegrino

45'

Aliou Coly

46'

H. Stenevik← H. Stengel

55'

J. Hove↳ M. Maigaard

56'

B. Bye← F. Kastrati

59'

Amin Askar

67'

L. Kalludra← P. Ulvestad

67'

S. Sørli← A. Askar

76'

J. Ikaunieks← J. Hove

76'

M. Mølvadgaard← K. Tokstad

77'

M. Mawa

82'

C. Psyché← A. Coly

82'

F. Pemi← A. Pellegrino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetKristiansund

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots26

2Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots26

9On Target10

4Off Target10

6Blocked6

11Inside Box17

8Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

446Total Passes279

334Accurate Passes170

75%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

8Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK

Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on July 5, 2020.

Goals: A. Pellegrino (27', 39'), J. Hove (55'), M. Mawa (77').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 26.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK