Stromsgodset 2–3 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Kristiansund BK

E. Andersen 57'

T. Nguen 6'

B. Bye 31', 24', 21'

7/9/2018

Eliteserien · Round 16Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Stromsgodset48%

×Draw22%

Kristiansund BK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.45

Stromsgodset

1.90

Kristiansund BK

1.45

Stromsgodset creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

1.82

creates per match

1.07

1.83

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Kristiansund BK

1.07

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Kristiansund BK

1.97

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Kristiansund BK-0.07on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

70%

Stromsgodset or Kristiansund BK

78%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

52%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

27%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

85%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

56%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

29%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

77%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

62%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kristiansund BK attack 1.07 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

48%

level

22%

Kristiansund BK scores more

30%

Stromsgodset at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Andersen

Stromsgodset · M

9.0

Match Events

6'

T. Nguen↳ J. Parr

21'

24'

31'

34'

55'

57'

E. Andersen↳ T. Nguen

64'

71'

71'

71'

77'

A. Pellegrino← M. Abdellaoue

82'

B. Lepistu← L. Kalludra

86'

S. Sørli← T. Gjertsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetKristiansund

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots12

9Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots12

8On Target7

6Off Target2

6Blocked3

13Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

450Total Passes273

348Accurate Passes173

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 2–3 Kristiansund BK

Kristiansund BK beat Stromsgodset 3-2 in Eliteserien on July 9, 2018.

Goals: T. Nguen (6'), B. Bye (21', 24', 31'), E. Andersen (57').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 2–3 Kristiansund BK