Stromsgodset 2–0 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad

L. Tómasson 55'

J. Therkelsen 12'

10/26/2024

Eliteserien · Round 26Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Stromsgodset44%

×Draw23%

Fredrikstad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.45

Stromsgodset

1.72

Fredrikstad

1.45

Stromsgodset creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.82

creates per match

1.13

1.77

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

67%

Stromsgodset or Fredrikstad

77%

Draw or Fredrikstad

56%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

23%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

82%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

51%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

25%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

77%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

42%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

57%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

44%

level

23%

Fredrikstad scores more

33%

Stromsgodset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

L. Vilsvik

Stromsgodset · D

8.0

Match Events

12'

J. Therkelsen↳ G. Valsvik

46'

J. Kjær← P. Metcalfe

46'

F. Fall← B. Skaret

54'

S. Molde← D. Eid

55'

L. Tómasson↳ H. Stengel

60'

Logi Tomasson

60'

H. Skogvold← J. Bjartalíð

69'

H. Johansen← S. Sørløkk

77'

Bent Sormo

84'

E. Melkersen← Marko Farji

86'

M. Mehnert← L. Tómasson

88'

Per Kristian Bråtveit

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetFredrikstad

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots14

2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.95

4Corners4

6Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots14

5On Target4

3Off Target8

9Blocked2

12Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

478Total Passes572

385Accurate Passes463

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1