Fredrikstad 4–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Stromsgodset

O. Aga 66'

M. Bjørlo 41' (pen)

E. Andersen 14' (OG)

S. Molde 4'

P. Aukland 8' (OG)

5/16/2024

Eliteserien · Round 8Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Fredrikstad54%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.15

Fredrikstad

1.88

Stromsgodset

1.15

Fredrikstad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

0.96

1.33

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Stromsgodset

0.96

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Stromsgodset

2.16

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Stromsgodset+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

77%

Fredrikstad or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

46%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

31%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

85%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

56%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

68%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

32%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

70%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.88

Stromsgodset attack 0.96 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

54%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

23%

Fredrikstad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Bjørlo

Fredrikstad · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

S. Molde↳ M. Bjørlo

8'

P. AuklandOwn goal

14'

E. AndersenOwn goal

41'

M. BjørloPenalty

63'

Kreshnik Krasniqi

64'

B. Hendriksson← S. Sørløkk

64'

O. Aga← J. Kjær

66'

O. Aga↳ S. Molde

67'

Marko Farji← K. Krasniqi

72'

Júlíus MagnússonGoal cancelled

76'

S. Silalahi← E. Andersen

76'

S. Westerlund← F. Dahl

76'

81'

86'

87'

90+1'

M. Nielsen← P. Aukland

90+1'

E. Solberg← P. Metcalfe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadStromsgodset

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots13

2.34Expected Goals (xG)0.97

8Corners2

13Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots13

5On Target2

4Off Target8

6Blocked3

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

423Total Passes453

320Accurate Passes344

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0