Strommen 5–0 Asker: Result & Stats

Strommen

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Asker

N. Hristov 68', 17', 8'

T. Romo Lillo 47'

M. Sundberg 45' (pen)

7/19/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Strommen59%

×Draw21%

Asker20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrommenExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.16

Strommen

2.10

Asker

1.16

Strommen creates 81% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 45 away

2.38

creates per match

1.29

1.03

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Strommen

2.38

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Strommen

1.03

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Strommen or draw

80%

Strommen or Asker

79%

Draw or Asker

41%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+

36%

Asker wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals

88%

Strommen 2+ goals

62%

Strommen 3+ goals

35%

Asker 1+ goals

69%

Asker 2+ goals

32%

Asker 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)

74%

Asker (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 2.38 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.10

Asker attack 1.29 + Strommen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Strommen scores more

59%

level

21%

Asker scores more

20%

Strommen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

N. Hristov

17'

N. Hristov

21'

E. Brennhaugen← S. Jorgensen

45'

M. SundbergPenalty

47'

T. Romo Lillo

50'

M. Jatta

59'

J. Johansen← M. Jatta

59'

M. Spiten-Nysaeter← E. Adukonis

68'

N. Hristov

69'

J. Kristengard← N. Hristov

69'

E. Rogne← M. Paulsen

73'

K. Getz

77'

M. Spiten-Nysaeter

78'

N. Solberg← M. Sundberg

78'

M. Volden← H. Kristiansen

84'

A. Heggset← J. Kenyi

84'

N. J. Arnesen← S. Emanuelsen

85'

M. Solli← A. Nord

Strommen

Asker

30

Hejer

42

▼

Jatta

22

▼

Emanuelse

19

▼

3

8

15

27

▼

Kenyi

77

Syvertsen

10

▼

Adukonis

20

Sesay

1

Vits

98

⚽

Lillo

7

▼

3

2

8

4

24

▼

Paulsen

11

⚽

▼

Sundberg

16

▼

Nord

9

⚽3

▼

Hristov

Manager: Ø. Heiberg

69'▲J. Kristengard←▼N. Hristov

69'▲E. Rogne←▼M. Paulsen

78'▲N. Solberg←▼M. Sundberg

78'▲M. Volden←▼H. Kristiansen

85'▲M. Solli←▼A. Nord

Strommen substitutes

30Kollstrom6Solberg14Kristengard15Navaratnam17Volden19Rogne20Solli21Jansson33Nilsen

Manager: R. Bredal

21'▲E. Brennhaugen←▼S. Jorgensen

59'▲J. Johansen←▼M. Jatta

59'▲M. Spiten-Nysaeter←▼E. Adukonis

84'▲A. Heggset←▼J. Kenyi

84'▲N. J. Arnesen←▼S. Emanuelsen

Asker substitutes

1Normann7Johansen11Baekken12Heggset17Arnesen18Spiten-Nysaeter28Stokke29Brennhaugen