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Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. vs Nart Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nart Cherkessk
Nart Cherkessk
10/26/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Novokolor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.46%
×Draw25%
Nart Cherkessk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.55
Nart Cherkessk
1.18

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.94
Nart Cherkessk
1.36

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.17

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par
Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Nart Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw
71%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Nart Cherkessk
75%
Draw or Nart Cherkessk
54%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
23%
Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
79%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
46%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
20%
Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals
69%
Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals
33%
Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
61%
Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Nart Cherkessk away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Nart Cherkessk defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.36 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
46%
level
25%
Nart Cherkessk scores more
29%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2–1 Nart Cherkessk

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. beat Nart Cherkessk 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Novokolor Arena in Abramovka.