Nart Cherkessk 2–1 Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Nart Cherkessk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

6/24/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Nart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nart Cherkessk44%

×Draw30%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nart CherkesskExpected goals in this matchStroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.85

Nart Cherkessk

1.20

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

0.85

Nart Cherkessk creates 41% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 16 away

1.27

creates per match

0.81

0.90

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Nart Cherkessk

1.27

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

0.81

allows per match

Nart Cherkessk

0.90

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nart Cherkessk ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nart Cherkessk or draw

74%

Nart Cherkessk or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

70%

Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

56%

Winning margin

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+

19%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals

70%

Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals

34%

Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals

12%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals

57%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals

21%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)

63%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nart Cherkessk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.27 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Nart Cherkessk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nart Cherkessk scores more

44%

level

30%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more

26%

Nart Cherkessk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nart Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff