Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
9/14/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Novokolor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.50%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Stavropol25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.67
Dinamo Stavropol
1.11

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 92 away

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.94
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.00
Dinamo Stavropol
1.39

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw
75%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Dinamo Stavropol
76%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
50%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
81%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
50%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
50%
level
24%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
25%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 0–2 Dinamo Stavropol

Dinamo Stavropol beat Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Novokolor Arena in Abramovka.