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Dinamo Stavropol vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
5/18/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol41%
×Draw28%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.04

Dinamo Stavropol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.81

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.13

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
69%
Dinamo Stavropol or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
72%
Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
18%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
13%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
65%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
28%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
58%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
41%
level
28%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
31%

Dinamo Stavropol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 1–1 Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Dinamo Stavropol and Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.