Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 4–0 Angust Nazran

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Angust Nazran

11/9/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Novokolor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.54%

×Draw26%

Angust Nazran20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.Expected goals in this matchAngust Nazran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.81

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.53

Angust Nazran

0.81

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 89% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 41 away

1.94

creates per match

0.63

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.94

Angust Nazran

0.63

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.00

Angust Nazran

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Angust Nazran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Angust Nazran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw

80%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Angust Nazran

74%

Draw or Angust Nazran

46%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+

28%

Angust Nazran wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals

78%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals

45%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals

20%

Angust Nazran 1+ goals

56%

Angust Nazran 2+ goals

19%

Angust Nazran 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)

73%

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Angust Nazran away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Angust Nazran defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Angust Nazran attack 0.63 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more

54%

level

26%

Angust Nazran scores more

20%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff