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Angust Nazran vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. — Second League - Group 1 2020

Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
7/6/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Angust Nazran37%
×Draw33%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angust Nazran
0.96
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.85

Angust Nazran creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

Angust Nazran
0.79
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.81

allows per match

Angust Nazran
0.89
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.13

finishing

Angust Nazran+0.00on par
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angust Nazran ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Angust Nazran or draw
69%
Angust Nazran or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
67%
Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
63%

Winning margin

Angust Nazran wins by 2+
14%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Angust Nazran 1+ goals
62%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
25%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
7%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
57%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
21%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
54%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angust Nazran at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angust Nazran attack 0.79 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Angust Nazran defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Angust Nazran scores more
37%
level
33%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
31%

Angust Nazran at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Angust Nazran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angust Nazran vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. beat Angust Nazran 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva in Nazran'.