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Strogino vs Khimik-Arsenal — Second League - Group 3 2020

Strogino
Strogino
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Khimik-Arsenal
Khimik-Arsenal
5/20/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Strogino38%
×Draw25%
Khimik-Arsenal37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strogino
1.46
Khimik-Arsenal
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

Strogino
1.66
Khimik-Arsenal
1.27

allows per match

Strogino
1.57
Khimik-Arsenal
1.27

finishing

Strogino+0.00on par
Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino ↓

Khimik-Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Strogino or draw
63%
Strogino or Khimik-Arsenal
75%
Draw or Khimik-Arsenal
62%

Winning margin

Strogino wins by 2+
18%
Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Strogino 1+ goals
77%
Strogino 2+ goals
43%
Strogino 3+ goals
18%
Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals
76%
Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals
41%
Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Strogino (draw refunded)
51%
Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

Khimik-Arsenal away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino attack 1.66 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.27 + Strogino defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Strogino scores more
38%
level
25%
Khimik-Arsenal scores more
37%

Strogino at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Strogino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strogino vs Khimik-Arsenal

Strogino and Khimik-Arsenal drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 3 on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.