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Khimik-Arsenal vs Strogino — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimik-Arsenal
Khimik-Arsenal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Strogino
Strogino
9/20/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimik-Arsenal47%
×Draw24%
Strogino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik-Arsenal
1.69
Strogino
1.29

Khimik-Arsenal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

creates per match

Khimik-Arsenal
1.73
Strogino
1.10

allows per match

Khimik-Arsenal
1.47
Strogino
1.64

finishing

Khimik-Arsenal+0.00on par
Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik-Arsenal ↓

Strogino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Khimik-Arsenal or draw
71%
Khimik-Arsenal or Strogino
76%
Draw or Strogino
53%

Winning margin

Khimik-Arsenal wins by 2+
25%
Strogino wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khimik-Arsenal 1+ goals
82%
Khimik-Arsenal 2+ goals
50%
Khimik-Arsenal 3+ goals
24%
Strogino 1+ goals
72%
Strogino 2+ goals
37%
Strogino 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khimik-Arsenal (draw refunded)
61%
Strogino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik-Arsenal at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Strogino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik-Arsenal attack 1.73 + Strogino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Strogino attack 1.10 + Khimik-Arsenal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimik-Arsenal scores more
47%
level
24%
Strogino scores more
29%

Khimik-Arsenal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimik-Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Khimik-Arsenal 3–1 Strogino

Khimik-Arsenal beat Strogino 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Novomoskovsk.